The simplest and correct answer to the question is yes. President Trump did lose and lost horribly. The future does not look very bright for his term.
How bad was the loss, is the next question? As Donald Trump typically says, “Very bad. Very bad.” The Republicans failed to meet an objective and per the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, Obamacare will continue to be implemented for the foreseeable future. This means that the current situations regarding health insurance and healthcare may get worse. A 20% increase may become the norm as we move forward. The removal of the tax penalty mandate, box 61 on your 1040, will cause Obamacare to lose some of the money needed to fund the program that will cause premium increases.
Why do the rates keep going up? The reasons are actually very simple. The more the government regulates the health insurance sector the more the premiums increase. Currently, there is no freedom in healthcare. You buy a plan stipulated by government mandates and then hope to see a doctor that accepts that plan. If you do not have the money to buy a plan then you go to an emergency room and get serviced. The public pays into a health tax fund that pays for the people that go to an emergency room and do not have health insurance. Those that go to the emergency room can be billed but if they have no income they never have to pay. This law was instituted as part of the 1986 Omnibus Cobra Reconciliation Act. In 1986, most had health insurance so the point was to subsidize the few that did not have health insurance. Today, most do not have health insurance and the pool of money to subsidize the uninsured has dropped dramatically.
Medicaid. Another aspect of health insurance that is spiraling costs out of control is Medicaid and Medicare. The fraud associated with these plans is unreal. Total fraud for both plans in 2016 amounted to over $200 billion. Almost a quarter of a trillion dollars. This is one major reason that the programs need to more restrictive or removed. These statistics are provided by the Justice Dept and their fraud unit, Medicare Fraud Strike Force.
What’s a comparable scenario for choice? Let’s briefly talk about car insurance. You are required by State law to have car insurance. You buy car insurance across State lines and find the best deal. If you crash your car then you pay a deductible and then the insurance covers after the deductible. Interestingly enough, car insurance can cover a portion of your medical bill as well. Health insurance does not work that way. You can only buy policies from your State insurer and those benefits are mandated. If you are a 60 year old male you can only buy the same policy as the 23 year old male. Both policies offer maternity coverage even though neither can use that benefit. Health insurance should allow flexibility for someone to buy a policy that fits their needs from any insurer in the country.
What are the next steps? President Trump has lost as well as his fellow Republicans. They could have sold Trumpcare much better I suppose. They failed because they did not explain parts II & III fully to the public. The public felt that parts II & III were the same force fed changes that occurred with Obamacare. Obamacare stated the same things. Pass the bill now and we’ll decide later. Later we are at the same point, or worse, from prior to Obamacare. The future actually does not look so bright.
Lobbying. There are large donors who want to keep things status quo. Trump did not drain any swamp. He cannot drain the swamp. The swamp thrives with thousands of alligators and crocodiles with exaggerated kickbacks to insurers and lawmakers. Those kickbacks will never allow forward motion within the House, Senate, and Congress.
What are our options moving forward? The first is that House and Senate come together and fix the current healthcare law to make it more like a car insurance marketplace as described prior. The 2nd option is that we move to a single payer option. If Republicans fail to fix the plan and lose the next election then single payer will become the new law. Single payer will completely change the health insurance landscape as will the potential Trumpcare Act.
How will it play out? I believe President Trump made to many promises and he cannot change the current health insurance law with all the mandates. Trump’s premise was accurate for positive change but it cannot happen. The kickback lobby policy will always trump President Trump. In President Trump’s prior world kickbacks were illegal. Within the government arena lobbyist kickbacks are legal, which destroys any of his premises.
If President Trump loses the next election then single payer will be the new insurance wiping out most brokers and agents. Trump’s option wipes out most agents and brokers as well but not to the extent of a single payer platform. I am not siding with the brokers or agents nor do I care. These are just an example of the changing landscape. I just want the best option for the population of the United States of America. I think the best option is to have free choice to buy what you want or need like car insurance, but that scenario has a very low probability of being implemented now. Call your local politician’s office to discuss your options and create change.